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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat Antwerp 1-3 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.23 xG and Anderlecht 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Anderlecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 34% | Draw 32% | Anderlecht 34%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 51%, Anderlecht 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Anderlecht's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.43 PPG, Anderlecht 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights