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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Anderlecht 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Anderlecht 2-3 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 2.86 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.99 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 75% | Draw 17% | Zulte Waregem 9%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Zulte Waregem win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 48%, Zulte Waregem 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.61 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights