🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Union St. Gilloise 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat Union St. Gilloise 1-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.27 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.06 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.85 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 40% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 30%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 42%, Union St. Gilloise 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.62. Form was overturned, with Anderlecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights