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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 3-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Group - 39, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.37 xG and St. Truiden 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 37%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 49%, St. Truiden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.39 PPG, St. Truiden 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights