🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Anderlecht at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Anderlecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 6W 2D 2L at Lotto Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.

St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Anderlecht at 2.00 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Anderlecht have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Anderlecht and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Anderlecht trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

St. Truiden trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 32% versus St. Truiden 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 42% | St. Truiden 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.35 xG and St. Truiden 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.100 / defence 0.754 | St. Truiden attack 1.171 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.059. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Anderlecht games / 47 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Anderlecht 46% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 26%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 3.85. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 50% | St. Truiden 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights