Anderlecht 1-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees St. Truiden travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Anderlecht — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Anderlecht haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 7W 1D 2L at Lotto Park — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Anderlecht at 1.40 PPG versus St. Truiden's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Anderlecht have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while St. Truiden have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 4–1 with Anderlecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Anderlecht and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 68% and St. Truiden 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 60% | St. Truiden 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.68 xG and St. Truiden 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.068 / defence 0.974 | St. Truiden attack 0.968 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Anderlecht games / 30 St. Truiden games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 52% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | St. Truiden 5.26. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | St. Truiden 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 52% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Anderlecht 1.68 / St. Truiden 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.068 / def 0.974 | St. Truiden attack 0.968 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
St. Truiden xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kick off?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Anderlecht 1 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden part of?
Anderlecht vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 52% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Anderlecht and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Anderlecht 4W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.07x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.47
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.64
0.96
St. Truiden xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.96 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 22W 11D 7L from 40 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. Anderlecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 13L across 40 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. St. Truiden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 15W 3D 2L from 20 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Anderlecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 3W 8D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.23 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Pre-Season
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 13W 14D 13L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or St. Truiden away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.40 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and St. Truiden runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Anderlecht
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and St. Truiden?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 60%, St. Truiden 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Anderlecht) and 55% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Anderlecht's games and 60% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Anderlecht's matches and 55% of St. Truiden's.
Do Anderlecht and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out St. Truiden 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 1-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.68 xG and St. Truiden 0.96 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against St. Truiden attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 52% | Draw 29% | St. Truiden 19%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 60%, St. Truiden 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
St. Truiden's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.