Anderlecht 2-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Genk meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht at Lotto Park this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genk have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genk's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.90 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Genk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 63% and Genk 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 56% | Genk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.80 xG and Genk 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.234 / defence 1.159 | Genk attack 0.912 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.410. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Anderlecht games / 27 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 45% | Draw 23% | Genk 32%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 3.12. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 45% | Draw 23% | Genk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Anderlecht 1.80 / Genk 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.234 / def 1.159 | Genk attack 0.912 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Genk xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Genk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Anderlecht 2 - 0 Genk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Genk part of?
Anderlecht vs Genk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning, Genk a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Anderlecht and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Genk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.23x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.91x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.39
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.29
1.49
Genk xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.49 for Genk, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Anderlecht come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 9D 5L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.52 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Anderlecht's home form reads 6W 5D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Genk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.44 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Genk in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 13W 9D 5L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Genk have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Genk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.77 PPG; Genk away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Anderlecht, 69% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Anderlecht) and 62% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Anderlecht's games and 69% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Anderlecht's matches and 62% of Genk's.
Do Anderlecht and Genk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Genk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Genk 2-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.80 xG and Genk 1.49 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Genk attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 45% | Draw 23% | Genk 32%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 56%, Genk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.78 PPG, Genk 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.