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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Anderlecht and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 7, as Anderlecht and Genk drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.95 xG and Genk 1.50 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.25 / defence 1.24 against Genk attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 47% | Draw 25% | Genk 28%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 47%, Genk 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Anderlecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Genk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.56 PPG, Genk 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights