Anderlecht 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Genk meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Anderlecht's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Anderlecht at Lotto Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Genk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Genk's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.40 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Anderlecht lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genk half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 59% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 54% | Genk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.37 xG and Genk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.046 / defence 0.893 | Genk attack 1.040 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Data: 63 Anderlecht games / 64 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 27% | Genk 30%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Genk 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | Genk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 43% | Draw 27% | Genk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Anderlecht 1.37 / Genk 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.046 / def 0.893 | Genk attack 1.040 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Genk xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Genk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Genk part of?
Anderlecht vs Genk is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 43% chance of winning, Genk a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Anderlecht and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
Record (3 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 1 | Genk 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.05x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.04x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.71
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.46
1.09
Genk xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.09 for Genk, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Anderlecht come into this having played 70 games, going 34W 18D 18L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.77 PPG from 70 outings (35W 19D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.77 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Anderlecht's home form reads 20W 7D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.57 points per game from 35 outings (15W 10D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.80 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 70 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Genk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 34W 18D 18L in their last 70 games (1.71 PPG), while Genk have gone 35W 19D 16L in their last 70 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Genk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.91 PPG; Genk away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Genk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Genk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 57%, Genk 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Anderlecht) and 54% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Anderlecht's games and 63% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Anderlecht's matches and 54% of Genk's.
Do Anderlecht and Genk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Genk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Genk 2-1 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.37 xG and Genk 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Genk attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 43% | Draw 27% | Genk 30%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 54%, Genk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.71 PPG, Genk 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.