Anderlecht vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charleroi are 0.70 PPG clear of Anderlecht in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Anderlecht have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 10 meetings, with Charleroi managing just 3 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Charleroi winning.
The historical record gives Anderlecht a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 51% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 49% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.03 xG and Charleroi 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.778 / defence 0.736 | Charleroi attack 1.086 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.298. Anderlecht's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Anderlecht's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Anderlecht games / 35 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Charleroi 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Anderlecht dominate the H2H record, yet Charleroi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 80% | Charleroi 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 35% | Draw 30% | Charleroi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Anderlecht 1.03 / Charleroi 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.778 / def 0.736 | Charleroi attack 1.086 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Lotto Park.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Anderlecht 6W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.78x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.09x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.30
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Charleroi xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.04 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 17W 11D 17L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 18L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.40 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.77 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 59%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Anderlecht) and 41% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Anderlecht's recent games and 41% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.