Anderlecht 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Charleroi have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charleroi are 0.60 PPG clear of Anderlecht in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Anderlecht have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Charleroi managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Anderlecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Anderlecht and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 70% versus Charleroi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 60% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.50 xG and Charleroi 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.827 / defence 1.015 | Charleroi attack 1.097 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.177. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Anderlecht games / 37 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 41% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 33%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Anderlecht dominate the H2H record, yet Charleroi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | Charleroi 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 41% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Anderlecht 1.50 / Charleroi 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.827 / def 1.015 | Charleroi attack 1.097 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Anderlecht 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 41% chance of winning, Charleroi a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): Anderlecht 5W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 0.83x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.10x) against Anderlecht's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.86
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Charleroi xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.31 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 22W 14D 7L from 43 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 18L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 22W 14D 7L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.10 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 57%, Charleroi 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Anderlecht) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 43% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Anderlecht's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Anderlecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 8, as Anderlecht and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.50 xG and Charleroi 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Charleroi attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 41% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 60%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.