Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.24x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (13.2%), 4-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
84%
1.19
13%
7.52
3%
36.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.2%
Home win
4 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.44
0.53
Beerschot VA xG
1.19
84%
Home win
7.52
13%
Draw
36.76
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
5%
18.45
Win to Nil
50%
2.01
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.53 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.