Anderlecht 1-0 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Anderlecht face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Anderlecht have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Anderlecht have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antwerp's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Anderlecht 1–1 Antwerp — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 59% versus Antwerp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 54% | Antwerp 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Anderlecht surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Antwerp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.29 xG and Antwerp 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.048 / defence 0.874 | Antwerp attack 1.112 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.177. Antwerp bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Anderlecht's projected output down. Data: built from Anderlecht's last 63 games and Antwerp's last 64.
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 40% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 33%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.51 | Draw 3.66 | Antwerp 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Anderlecht's last 10 home games and Antwerp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Anderlecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 40% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Anderlecht 1.29 / Antwerp 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.048 / def 0.874 | Antwerp attack 1.112 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Antwerp xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Anderlecht vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does Anderlecht vs Antwerp kick off?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Anderlecht 1 - 0 Antwerp.
Where is Anderlecht vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Antwerp part of?
Anderlecht vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 40% chance of winning, Antwerp a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Anderlecht and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Anderlecht vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Anderlecht's attack rating (1.05) and Antwerp's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (1.11x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Anderlecht's last 63 games and Antwerp's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.66
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.43
1.14
Antwerp xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Anderlecht vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.14 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 31W 16D 16L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Antwerp's form line: 32W 18D 13L from 63 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.81 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Antwerp have gone 12W 10D 10L from their last 32 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.70 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
Anderlecht (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Anderlecht
Current Season
Antwerp
Current Season
❓ Anderlecht vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are Anderlecht and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 games (1.73 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 32W 18D 13L in their last 63 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Antwerp away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.81 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Antwerp in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Anderlecht
4
Draws
1
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Anderlecht vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Anderlecht have won 5, Antwerp have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 December 2025: Antwerp 2-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Antwerp?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 59%, Antwerp 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 44% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 41%; Antwerp in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Anderlecht vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Anderlecht and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 38% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Anderlecht and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Anderlecht's recent games and 44% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 75% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Antwerp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Antwerp 1-0 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.29 xG and Antwerp 1.14 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Antwerp attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 40% | Draw 27% | Antwerp 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 54%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Antwerp's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.73 PPG, Antwerp 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.