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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Patro Eisden 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Patro Eisden 3-2 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.44 xG and Patro Eisden 1.27 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.47 / defence 0.85 against Patro Eisden attack 1.07 / defence 0.70, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 41% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 33%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Patro Eisden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.88 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights