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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 3.16 xG and Lommel United 1.21 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 3.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.53 / defence 0.98 against Lommel United attack 0.91 / defence 1.47, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 76% | Draw 13% | Lommel United 11%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Lommel United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Lommel United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Lommel United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Lommel United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights