Zulte Waregem 3-1 Liège – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Liège fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Liège meet at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Liège have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Liège have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liège's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Liège — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 53% versus Liège 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 47% | Liège 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG and Liège 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.770 / defence 0.869 | Liège attack 0.959 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.478. Zulte Waregem's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Liège bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 34 Liège games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Liège 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 40% | Liège 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Liège | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.38 / Liège 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.770 / def 0.869 | Liège attack 0.959 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Liège xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Liège kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Liège kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 1 Liège.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Liège being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Liège part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Liège is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 40% chance of winning, Liège a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Liège will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Liège have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Liège?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 0 | Liège 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Liège in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Liège (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.77) and Liège's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Liège's attack (0.96x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.69
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.61
1.23
Liège xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Liège expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.23 for Liège, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Liège?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 34 games, going 16W 8D 10L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Liège sit at 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (15W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Liège, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.50 for Liège. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.65 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Liège have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Liège are on 1.56 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Liège
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Liège in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Liège have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Liège away?
Liège's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.19 PPG; Liège away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Liège — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
0
Liège
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Liège?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, Liège have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Liège last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Liège 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Liège?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 44%, Liège 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Zulte Waregem) and 69% (Liège).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Liège away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Liège?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 62% of Liège's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Liège usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 69% of Liège's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Liège tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Liège in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Liège.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Liège 3-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.38 xG and Liège 1.23 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.77 / defence 0.87 against Liège attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 47%, Liège 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Liège's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.65 PPG, Liège 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.