Zulte Waregem 0-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host K. Lierse S.K. at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. K. Lierse S.K. haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 1.30 PPG versus K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 53% and K. Lierse S.K. 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 47% | K. Lierse S.K. 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.49 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.982 / defence 0.967 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.932 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.469. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 30 K. Lierse S.K. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 41% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 34%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 60% | K. Lierse S.K. 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 41% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.49 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.982 / def 0.967 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.932 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.32
K. Lierse S.K. xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 41% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.98) and K. Lierse S.K.'s defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, K. Lierse S.K.'s attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.98
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.32 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 14W 7D 9L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. Zulte Waregem haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 10W 5D 15L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. K. Lierse S.K. haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L). That actually lags their 1.63 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.47 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Pre-Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 10W 5D 15L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.13 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting K. Lierse S.K. specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K.?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 53%, K. Lierse S.K. 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Zulte Waregem) and 73% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 40% of games; K. Lierse S.K. in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Zulte Waregem's games and 60% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.49 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 41% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 34%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 47%, K. Lierse S.K. 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with K. Lierse S.K. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.