Zulte Waregem vs Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deinze make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Challenger Pro League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 00:00 UK time.
Form
Zulte Waregem (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Zulte Waregem have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Deinze have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Zulte Waregem's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Deinze's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Deinze's last 10 away games) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Deinze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Zulte Waregem edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Zulte Waregem 2–2 Deinze — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Deinze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus Deinze 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 58% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 2.46 xG and Deinze 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.566 / defence 0.970 | Deinze attack 0.919 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.375. Zulte Waregem carry an above-average attack rating of 1.566 — their 2.46 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 50 games and Deinze's last 44.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 64% | Draw 19% | Deinze 17%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Deinze 5.87. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.46 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Deinze's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 70% (last 10 home games) | Deinze 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 64% | Draw 19% | Deinze 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Zulte Waregem 2.46 / Deinze 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.566 / def 0.970 | Deinze attack 0.919 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Deinze xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Deinze FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Deinze kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Deinze kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Deinze part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Deinze is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 64% chance of winning, Deinze a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Deinze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.57x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.92x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 50 games and Deinze's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.26
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.68
1.23
Deinze xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
9%
11.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
1%
68.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Deinze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.23 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 27W 10D 11L from 48 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 16L across 48 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.62 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 12W 5D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deinze's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.54 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Deinze
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Deinze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Deinze Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Deinze in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 27W 10D 11L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Deinze have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Deinze away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.71 PPG; Deinze away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Deinze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Deinze?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Deinze have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Deinze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2024: Deinze 2-2 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Deinze?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 58%, Deinze 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Zulte Waregem) and 58% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Deinze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Deinze matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Zulte Waregem's games and 54% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and Deinze matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 58% of Deinze's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Deinze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 67% of Deinze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zulte Waregem's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Zulte Waregem and Deinze drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 2.46 xG and Deinze 1.23 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zulte Waregem fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.57 / defence 0.97 against Deinze attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 64% | Draw 19% | Deinze 17%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 58%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Deinze's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.90 PPG, Deinze 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.