Standard Liège II 1-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Cité de l'Oie plays host to Standard Liège II versus Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liège II have posted 3W 0D 7L at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Francs Borains have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Standard Liège II, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Standard Liège II — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 48% versus Francs Borains 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 67% | Francs Borains 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.34 xG and Francs Borains 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.809 / defence 1.308 | Francs Borains attack 0.812 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.471. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Standard Liège II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Standard Liège II games / 21 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Standard Liège II 40% | Francs Borains 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Standard Liège II 1.34 / Francs Borains 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.809 / def 1.308 | Francs Borains attack 0.812 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Francs Borains xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Standard Liège II 1 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains part of?
Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 33% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Standard Liège II and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liège II's attack at 0.81x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.81x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 43/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.07
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.90
1.56
Francs Borains xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.56 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Standard Liège II have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 5W 0D 16L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 6W 2D 13L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Standard Liège II against 0.95 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Standard Liège II have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.10 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 5W 0D 16L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Francs Borains away?
Standard Liège II's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.90 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains?
From 2 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 0, Francs Borains have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Standard Liège II 1-2 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 40%, Francs Borains 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Standard Liège II and 60% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liège II have failed to score in 50% of games; Francs Borains in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Standard Liège II's recent matches and 40% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liège II vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Standard Liège II's matches and 60% of Francs Borains's.
Do Standard Liège II and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Francs Borains edge out Standard Liège II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Standard Liège II 1-2 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.34 xG and Francs Borains 1.56 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.81 / defence 1.31 against Francs Borains attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 43/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 33% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 43%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 67%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 0.71 PPG, Francs Borains 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.