Standard Liège II 1-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Deinze (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Standard Liège II face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Relegation Round - 6 sees Deinze travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liège II. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liège II have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deinze are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Deinze have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Standard Liège II's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–5 with Deinze winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Deinze have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liège II in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Deinze in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 59% versus Deinze 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 59% | Deinze 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.04 xG and Deinze 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.800 / defence 1.268 | Deinze attack 0.755 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.453. Data: 22 Standard Liège II games / 50 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 28% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 2.22. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liège II 70% | Deinze 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 28% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Standard Liège II 1.04 / Deinze 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.800 / def 1.268 | Deinze attack 0.755 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Deinze (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Deinze xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Deinze kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Standard Liège II 1 - 2 Deinze.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Deinze part of?
Standard Liège II vs Deinze is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 28% chance of winning, Deinze a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Standard Liège II and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
Record (3 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 0 | Deinze 3W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Deinze in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Deinze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.80) and Deinze's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Standard Liège II's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
28%
3.56
27%
3.71
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.43
1.39
Deinze xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.39 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liège II come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 9D 13L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (11W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Standard Liège II's home form reads 2W 6D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liège II are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.41 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Deinze in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 5W 9D 13L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Deinze have gone 11W 4D 12L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.92 PPG; Deinze away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Deinze won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liège II's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
5
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 1, Deinze have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2023, when Deinze 2-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 77%, Deinze 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Standard Liège II) and 38% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 31%; Deinze in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Standard Liège II's games and 38% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Standard Liège II's recent games and 38% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liège II and Deinze tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Deinze in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Standard Liège II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Standard Liège II 1-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Relegation Round - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.04 xG and Deinze 1.39 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against Deinze attack 0.76 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 28% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 59%, Deinze 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.