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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Zulte Waregem 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Zulte Waregem 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.02 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.95 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 0.70 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 36% | Draw 32% | Zulte Waregem 32%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.54 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights