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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Patro Eisden 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Patro Eisden 2-1 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.13 xG and Patro Eisden 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.12 / defence 0.73 against Patro Eisden attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 34% | Draw 33% | Patro Eisden 33%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 51%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.93 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights