SK Beveren 2-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lommel United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SK Beveren have posted 1W 0D 2L at Freethielstadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.62 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Freethielstadion this season.
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.38. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.62 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.62. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lommel United trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 50% versus Lommel United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 62% | Lommel United 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.42 xG and Lommel United 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.011 / defence 1.423 | Lommel United attack 0.745 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.403. Data: 8 SK Beveren games / 8 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 33% | Draw 32% | Lommel United 36%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Lommel United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: SK Beveren 33% | Lommel United 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 33% | Draw 32% | Lommel United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG SK Beveren 1.42 / Lommel United 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.011 / def 1.423 | Lommel United attack 0.745 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lommel United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 33% chance of winning, Lommel United a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Lommel United (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.01) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.16
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.91
1.49
Lommel United xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.49 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.62 PPG, Lommel United on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lommel United's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lommel United's season.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.75 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.00 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lommel United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 33%, Lommel United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SK Beveren) and 67% (Lommel United).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren have failed to score in 67% of games; Lommel United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 67% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SK Beveren's recent games and 67% of Lommel United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat Lommel United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.42 xG and Lommel United 1.49 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.01 / defence 1.42 against Lommel United attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 33% | Draw 32% | Lommel United 36%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 62%, Lommel United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.62 PPG, Lommel United 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.