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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Liège.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Liège 4-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.78 xG and Liège 0.78 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.25 / defence 0.72 against Liège attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 61% | Draw 23% | Liège 16%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 54%, Liège 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Liège's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights