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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Liège.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Liège 3-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.23 xG and Liège 0.86 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.88 / defence 0.66 against Liège attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 44% | Draw 30% | Liège 25%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 50%, Liège 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Liège's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.48 PPG, Liège 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Liège (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights