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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Kortrijk 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Kortrijk 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 2.24 xG and Kortrijk 0.68 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.34 / defence 0.69 against Kortrijk attack 0.70 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 73% | Draw 17% | Kortrijk 10%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 57%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kortrijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights