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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KAA Gent II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat KAA Gent II 3-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.43 xG and KAA Gent II 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KAA Gent II landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against KAA Gent II attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 42% | Draw 26% | KAA Gent II 32%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 0%, KAA Gent II 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.

KAA Gent II's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. KAA Gent II managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights