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Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Francs Borains 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 1-0 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Francs Borains 1.11 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.13 / defence 0.80 against Francs Borains attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 53% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 51%, Francs Borains 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Francs Borains's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights