SK Beveren 5-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as SK Beveren welcome Dender to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethielstadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dender have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dender in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 0 for Dender and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dender trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 62% versus Dender 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 71% | Dender 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.87 xG and Dender 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.254 / defence 0.802 | Dender attack 0.802 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.430. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 SK Beveren games / 21 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 60% | Draw 22% | Dender 18%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Dender 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 60% | Draw 22% | Dender 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG SK Beveren 1.87 / Dender 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.254 / def 0.802 | Dender attack 0.802 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dender xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Dender kick off?
SK Beveren vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
SK Beveren 5 - 2 Dender.
Where is SK Beveren vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Dender part of?
SK Beveren vs Dender is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 60% chance of winning, Dender a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Dender 0W.
What form are SK Beveren and Dender in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Dender (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.25) and Dender's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.49
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.79
0.92
Dender xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
35.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.92 for Dender, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 11W 7D 3L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender's form line: 5W 4D 12L from 21 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
On the road, Dender have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.90 PPG overall record — Dender travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.19 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Dender in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 11W 7D 3L in their last 21 games (1.90 PPG), while Dender have gone 5W 4D 12L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Dender away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.30 PPG; Dender away: 1.30 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dender in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Dender runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Dender specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Dender have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Dender 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Dender?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 60%, Dender 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (SK Beveren) and 20% (Dender).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of SK Beveren's recent games and 20% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Dender tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dender in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Dender 5-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.87 xG and Dender 0.92 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dender outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.25 / defence 0.80 against Dender attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 60% | Draw 22% | Dender 18%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 71%, Dender 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dender's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.