SK Beveren 0-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as SK Beveren take on Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Deinze meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. SK Beveren's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Deinze's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Deinze in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 0.92 xG and Deinze 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Deinze attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.820 / away 1.135. Data: 1 SK Beveren games / 1 Deinze games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 38% | Deinze 36%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Deinze 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 26% | Draw 38% | Deinze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG SK Beveren 0.92 / Deinze 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Deinze attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.820 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Deinze xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Deinze kick off?
SK Beveren vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
SK Beveren 0 - 2 Deinze.
Where is SK Beveren vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Deinze part of?
SK Beveren vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 26% chance of winning, Deinze a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SK Beveren and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Deinze in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W. Deinze (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 0.97x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.85x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.88
38%
2.60
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.03
1.11
Deinze xG
3.88
26%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.11 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Deinze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. SK Beveren's scoring rate against Deinze's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SK Beveren have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Deinze in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Deinze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Deinze in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Deinze have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 4-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SK Beveren
4
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Deinze?
From 9 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Deinze?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SK Beveren's games and 100% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of SK Beveren's recent games and 0% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Deinze tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Deinze in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat SK Beveren 0-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 0.92 xG and Deinze 1.11 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Deinze outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Deinze attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 26% | Draw 38% | Deinze 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 100%, Deinze 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Deinze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Deinze scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.