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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren and Club Brugge II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 29, as SK Beveren and Club Brugge II drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Club Brugge II 1.17 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Club Brugge II outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Club Brugge II attack 1.12 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge II 28%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 53%, Club Brugge II 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Club Brugge II's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.61 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights