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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Beerschot VA.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Beerschot VA 4-2 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.47 xG and Beerschot VA 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Beerschot VA attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 50% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 24%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 54%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights