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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as SK Beveren and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.19 / defence 0.76 against AS Eupen attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 50% | Draw 28% | AS Eupen 22%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, AS Eupen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Eupen's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights