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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AS Eupen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat AS Eupen 3-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.54 xG and AS Eupen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against AS Eupen attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 26% | AS Eupen 23%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 52%, AS Eupen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Beveren's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

AS Eupen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights