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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Seraing United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Seraing United 0-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.24 xG and SK Beveren 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Seraing United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against SK Beveren attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 33% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 40%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 55%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

SK Beveren's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights