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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Seraing United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympic Charleroi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Seraing United beat Olympic Charleroi 3-1 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.52 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Seraing United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 32/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 49% | Draw 26% | Olympic Charleroi 25%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 33%, Olympic Charleroi 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Seraing United 0.33 PPG, Olympic Charleroi 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seraing United win broke the near-deadlock. Seraing United scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights