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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out Seraing United 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat Seraing United 2-3 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 0.91 xG and Lommel United 1.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Seraing United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Lommel United attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 19% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 56%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 54%, Lommel United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights