Seraing United 0-2 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Seraing United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pairay plays host to Seraing United versus Lokeren-Temse in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Seraing United have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Seraing United haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seraing United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade du Pairay — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lokeren-Temse haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lokeren-Temse's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Seraing United. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lokeren-Temse (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Seraing United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lokeren-Temse in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Seraing United 1W, Lokeren-Temse 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seraing United — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lokeren-Temse — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Seraing United 52% and Lokeren-Temse 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 48% | Lokeren-Temse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 1.55 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 1.040 / defence 0.972 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.997 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.358. Data: 31 Seraing United games / 32 Lokeren-Temse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Seraing United 43% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 32%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lokeren-Temse 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seraing United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Seraing United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Seraing United 60% | Lokeren-Temse 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 43% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Seraing United 1.55 / Lokeren-Temse 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 1.040 / def 0.972 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.997 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Seraing United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lokeren-Temse xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Seraing United 0 - 2 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 43% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Seraing United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (4 meetings): Seraing United 1W | Draws 2 | Lokeren-Temse 1W.
What form are Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Seraing United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seraing United's attack rating (1.04) and Lokeren-Temse's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lokeren-Temse's attack (1.00x) against Seraing United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Seraing United Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.04
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Seraing United xG
Total xG
2.86
1.32
Lokeren-Temse xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.32 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Seraing United come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 11D 12L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. Seraing United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lokeren-Temse sit at 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (10W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. Lokeren-Temse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Seraing United against 1.35 for Lokeren-Temse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Seraing United's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokeren-Temse have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Seraing United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.52 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse in 74%.
Last 31 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Pre-Season
Lokeren-Temse
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 1.27 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lokeren-Temse won 0-4 on 18 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seraing United have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Seraing United
2
Draws
2
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse?
From 5 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 1, Lokeren-Temse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Seraing United 0-2 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seraing United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Seraing United, 67% for Lokeren-Temse — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Seraing United) and 47% (Lokeren-Temse).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play Lokeren-Temse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Seraing United's games and 67% of Lokeren-Temse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Seraing United vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Seraing United's recent games and 47% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lokeren-Temse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Seraing United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat Seraing United 0-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.55 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.32 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Seraing United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/32 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 43% | Draw 25% | Lokeren-Temse 32%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lokeren-Temse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 48%, Lokeren-Temse 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seraing United 1.13 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Seraing United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.