🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 13, as Seraing United and Lokeren-Temse drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.23 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.36 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 31% | Draw 33% | Lokeren-Temse 37%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 55%, Lokeren-Temse 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights