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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Seraing United and Liège share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Seraing United and Liège finished level at 2-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.29 xG and Liège 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Liège outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Liège attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 40% | Draw 27% | Liège 33%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 53%, Liège 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Liège's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Seraing United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights