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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 11, as Seraing United and K. Lierse S.K. drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.29 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.08 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.62 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 40% | Draw 30% | K. Lierse S.K. 30%, with Seraing United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 56%, K. Lierse S.K. 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights