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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Seraing United and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 19, as Seraing United and Francs Borains drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 1.38 xG and Francs Borains 1.65 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Francs Borains attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Seraing United 32% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 44%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 57%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Seraing United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Seraing United 0.98 PPG, Francs Borains 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Seraing United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights