🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over RWDM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat RWDM 0-2 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.23 xG and SK Beveren 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against SK Beveren attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 30% | Draw 25% | SK Beveren 46%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 48%, SK Beveren 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Beveren's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 2.03 PPG, SK Beveren 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights