RWDM 3-1 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as RWDM take on Royal Excel Mouscron.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Royal Excel Mouscron travel to Edmond Machtens-Stadion to take on RWDM. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 0.71 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 RWDM games / 0 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: RWDM 21% | Draw 41% | Royal Excel Mouscron 38%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 21% | Draw 41% | Royal Excel Mouscron 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG RWDM 0.71 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
RWDM 3 - 1 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 21% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RWDM's attack rating (0.85) and Royal Excel Mouscron's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Royal Excel Mouscron's attack versus RWDM's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
RWDM xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for RWDM and 1.00 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Pre-Season
Royal Excel Mouscron
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
RWDM have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
RWDM's record when hosting Royal Excel Mouscron specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
RWDM
1
Draws
0
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, RWDM have won 3, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Royal Excel Mouscron 0-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Royal Excel Mouscron?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
RWDM cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Royal Excel Mouscron 3-1 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 0.71 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 21% | Draw 41% | Royal Excel Mouscron 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a RWDM win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.