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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RWDM and Olympic Charleroi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RWDM and Olympic Charleroi finished level at 3-3 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.58 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Olympic Charleroi outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 42% | Draw 25% | Olympic Charleroi 34%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 60%, Olympic Charleroi 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights