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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RWDM and Lommel United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as RWDM and Lommel United drew 3-3 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.36 xG and Lommel United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. RWDM beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Lommel United attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 40% | Draw 27% | Lommel United 33%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 48%, Lommel United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Lommel United's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights