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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lokeren-Temse edge out RWDM 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lokeren-Temse beat RWDM 1-2 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.30 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.04 / defence 1.32 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 27% | Draw 23% | Lokeren-Temse 50%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 50%, Lokeren-Temse 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 1.67 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights