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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liège run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RWDM.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liège beat RWDM 0-3 at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.59 xG and Liège 1.31 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Liège outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Liège attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 44% | Draw 25% | Liège 31%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Liège win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 52%, Liège 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Liège's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 1.72 PPG, Liège 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liège win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liège (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights