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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as RWDM edge out Liège 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RWDM beat Liège 2-1 at Edmond Machtensstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.40 xG and Liège 1.15 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Liège attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 43% | Draw 26% | Liège 31%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 65%, Liège 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Liège's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RWDM 1.11 PPG, Liège 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights