🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

RWDM and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Edmond Machtens Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as RWDM and KRC Genk II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 2.28 xG and KRC Genk II 1.13 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RWDM fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.33 / defence 0.93 against KRC Genk II attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RWDM 62% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 16%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 54%, KRC Genk II 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RWDM's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights